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Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector

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ISBN: 9783038972907 9783038972914 Year: Pages: 250 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-291-4 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science --- General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-19 10:39:42
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Accurate forecasting performance in the energy sector is a primary factor in the modern restructured power market, accomplished by any novel advanced hybrid techniques. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated by factors such as seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. To comprehensively address this issue, it is insufficient to concentrate only on simply hybridizing evolutionary algorithms with each other, or on hybridizing evolutionary algorithms with chaotic mapping, quantum computing, recurrent and seasonal mechanisms, and fuzzy inference theory in order to determine suitable parameters for an existing model. It is necessary to also consider hybridizing or combining two or more existing models (e.g., neuro-fuzzy model, BPNN-fuzzy model, seasonal support vector regression–chaotic quantum particle swarm optimization (SSVR-CQPSO), etc.). These advanced novel hybrid techniques can provide more satisfactory energy forecasting performances.This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, we were interested in contributions towards recent developments, i.e., hybridizing or combining any advanced techniques in energy forecasting, with the superior capabilities over the traditional forecasting approaches, with the ability to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and with the very superiority to achieve significant improved forecasting accuracy.

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

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ISBN: 9783038972860 9783038972877 Year: Pages: 250 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-287-7 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-19 11:45:03
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More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers.This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy.

Kernel Methods and Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithms in Energy Forecasting

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ISBN: 9783038972921 9783038972938 Year: Pages: 186 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-293-8 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science --- General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-22 10:01:53
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The development of kernel methods and hybrid evolutionary algorithms (HEAs) to support experts in energy forecasting is of great importance to improving the accuracy of the actions derived from an energy decision maker, and it is crucial that they are theoretically sound. In addition, more accurate or more precise energy demand forecasts are required when decisions are made in a competitive environment. Therefore, this is of special relevance in the Big Data era. These forecasts are usually based on a complex function combination. These models have resulted in over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expense if lacking the ability to catch the data patterns. The novel applications of kernel methods and hybrid evolutionary algorithms can provide more satisfactory parameters in forecasting models. We aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, we were interested in contributions towards the development of HEAs with kernel methods or with other novel methods (e.g., chaotic mapping mechanism, fuzzy theory, and quantum computing mechanism), which, with superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches, aim to overcome some embedded drawbacks and then apply these new HEAs to be hybridized with original forecasting models to significantly improve forecasting accuracy.

Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

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ISBN: 9783038975823 9783038975830 Year: Pages: 444 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-583-0 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2019-01-29 10:55:39
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In last few decades, short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been one of the most important research issues for achieving higher efficiency and reliability in power system operation, to facilitate the minimization of its operation cost by providing accurate input to day-ahead scheduling, contingency analysis, load flow analysis, planning, and maintenance of power systems. There are lots of forecasting models proposed for STLF, including traditional statistical models (such as ARIMA, SARIMA, ARMAX, multi-variate regression, Kalman filter, exponential smoothing, and so on) and artificial-intelligence-based models (such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), knowledge-based expert systems, fuzzy theory and fuzzy inference systems, evolutionary computation models, support vector regression, and so on). Recently, due to the great development of evolutionary algorithms (EA) and novel computing concepts (e.g., quantum computing concepts, chaotic mapping functions, and cloud mapping process, and so on), many advanced hybrids with those artificial-intelligence-based models are also proposed to achieve satisfactory forecasting accuracy levels. In addition, combining some superior mechanisms with an existing model could empower that model to solve problems it could not deal with before; for example, the seasonal mechanism from the ARIMA model is a good component to be combined with any forecasting models to help them to deal with seasonal problems.

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