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Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector

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ISBN: 9783038972907 9783038972914 Year: Pages: 250 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-291-4 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science --- General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-19 10:39:42
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Accurate forecasting performance in the energy sector is a primary factor in the modern restructured power market, accomplished by any novel advanced hybrid techniques. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated by factors such as seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. To comprehensively address this issue, it is insufficient to concentrate only on simply hybridizing evolutionary algorithms with each other, or on hybridizing evolutionary algorithms with chaotic mapping, quantum computing, recurrent and seasonal mechanisms, and fuzzy inference theory in order to determine suitable parameters for an existing model. It is necessary to also consider hybridizing or combining two or more existing models (e.g., neuro-fuzzy model, BPNN-fuzzy model, seasonal support vector regression–chaotic quantum particle swarm optimization (SSVR-CQPSO), etc.). These advanced novel hybrid techniques can provide more satisfactory energy forecasting performances.This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, we were interested in contributions towards recent developments, i.e., hybridizing or combining any advanced techniques in energy forecasting, with the superior capabilities over the traditional forecasting approaches, with the ability to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and with the very superiority to achieve significant improved forecasting accuracy.

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

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ISBN: 9783038972860 9783038972877 Year: Pages: 250 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-287-7 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-19 11:45:03
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More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers.This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy.

Kernel Methods and Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithms in Energy Forecasting

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ISBN: 9783038972921 9783038972938 Year: Pages: 186 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03897-293-8 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science --- General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2018-10-22 10:01:53
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The development of kernel methods and hybrid evolutionary algorithms (HEAs) to support experts in energy forecasting is of great importance to improving the accuracy of the actions derived from an energy decision maker, and it is crucial that they are theoretically sound. In addition, more accurate or more precise energy demand forecasts are required when decisions are made in a competitive environment. Therefore, this is of special relevance in the Big Data era. These forecasts are usually based on a complex function combination. These models have resulted in over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expense if lacking the ability to catch the data patterns. The novel applications of kernel methods and hybrid evolutionary algorithms can provide more satisfactory parameters in forecasting models. We aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, we were interested in contributions towards the development of HEAs with kernel methods or with other novel methods (e.g., chaotic mapping mechanism, fuzzy theory, and quantum computing mechanism), which, with superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches, aim to overcome some embedded drawbacks and then apply these new HEAs to be hybridized with original forecasting models to significantly improve forecasting accuracy.

Intelligent Optimization Modelling in Energy Forecasting

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ISBN: 9783039283644 9783039283651 Year: Pages: 262 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03928-365-1 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2020-04-07 23:07:09
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Accurate energy forecasting is important to facilitate the decision-making process in order to achieve higher efficiency and reliability in power system operation and security, economic energy use, contingency scheduling, the planning and maintenance of energy supply systems, and so on. In recent decades, many energy forecasting models have been continuously proposed to improve forecasting accuracy, including traditional statistical models (e.g., ARIMA, SARIMA, ARMAX, multi-variate regression, exponential smoothing models, Kalman filtering, Bayesian estimation models, etc.) and artificial intelligence models (e.g., artificial neural networks (ANNs), knowledge-based expert systems, evolutionary computation models, support vector regression, etc.). Recently, due to the great development of optimization modeling methods (e.g., quadratic programming method, differential empirical mode method, evolutionary algorithms, meta-heuristic algorithms, etc.) and intelligent computing mechanisms (e.g., quantum computing, chaotic mapping, cloud mapping, seasonal mechanism, etc.), many novel hybrid models or models combined with the above-mentioned intelligent-optimization-based models have also been proposed to achieve satisfactory forecasting accuracy levels. It is important to explore the tendency and development of intelligent-optimization-based modeling methodologies and to enrich their practical performances, particularly for marine renewable energy forecasting.

Keywords

short-term load forecasting --- weighted k-nearest neighbor (W-K-NN) algorithm --- comparative analysis --- empirical mode decomposition (EMD) --- particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm --- intrinsic mode function (IMF) --- support vector regression (SVR) --- short term load forecasting --- crude oil price forecasting --- time series forecasting --- hybrid model --- complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) --- sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) --- multi-step wind speed prediction --- Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition --- Long Short Term Memory --- General Regression Neural Network --- Brain Storm Optimization --- substation project cost forecasting model --- feature selection --- data inconsistency rate --- modified fruit fly optimization algorithm --- deep convolutional neural network --- multi-objective grey wolf optimizer --- long short-term memory --- fuzzy time series --- LEM2 --- combination forecasting --- wind speed --- electrical power load --- crude oil prices --- time series forecasting --- improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) --- kernel learning --- kernel ridge regression --- differential evolution (DE) --- artificial intelligence techniques --- energy forecasting --- condition-based maintenance --- asset management --- renewable energy consumption --- Gaussian processes regression --- state transition algorithm --- five-year project --- forecasting --- Markov-switching --- Markov-switching GARCH --- energy futures --- commodities --- portfolio management --- active investment --- diversification --- institutional investors --- energy price hedging --- metamodel --- ensemble --- individual --- regression --- interpolation

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