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Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889197453 Year: Pages: 207 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-745-3 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Psychology --- Science (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-04-07 11:22:02
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Abstract

We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.

Multi-Sensor Information Fusion

Authors: ---
ISBN: 9783039283026 9783039283033 Year: Pages: 602 DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-03928-303-3 Language: English
Publisher: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Subject: Technology (General) --- General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2020-04-07 23:07:09
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Abstract

This book includes papers from the section “Multisensor Information Fusion”, from Sensors between 2018 to 2019. It focuses on the latest research results of current multi-sensor fusion technologies and represents the latest research trends, including traditional information fusion technologies, estimation and filtering, and the latest research, artificial intelligence involving deep learning.

Keywords

linear regression --- covariance matrix --- data association --- sensor fusing --- SLAM --- multi-sensor data fusion --- conflicting evidence --- Dempster–Shafer evidence theory --- belief entropy --- similarity measure --- data classification --- fault diagnosis --- Bar-Shalom Campo --- Covariance Projection method --- data fusion --- distributed architecture --- Kalman filter --- linear constraints --- inconsistent data --- user experience evaluation --- user experience measurement --- eye-tracking --- facial expression --- galvanic skin response --- EEG --- interaction tracker --- self-reporting --- user experience platform --- mix-method approach --- image fusion --- multi-focus --- weight maps --- gradient domain --- fast guided filter. --- Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST) --- uncertainty measure --- open world --- closed world --- Deng entropy --- extended belief entropy --- sensor data fusion --- orthogonal redundant inertial measurement units --- data fusion architectures --- sensors bias --- fire source localization --- dynamic optimization --- global information --- the Range-Point-Range frame --- the Range-Range-Range frame --- sensor array --- SINS/DVL integrated navigation --- unscented information filter --- square root --- state probability approximation --- most suitable parameter form --- deep learning --- data preprocessing --- Human Activity Recognition (HAR) --- Internet of things (IoT) --- Industry 4.0 --- trajectory reconstruction --- low-cost sensors --- embedded systems --- powered two wheels (PTW) --- safe trajectory --- data fusion --- health management decision --- grey group decision-making --- health reliability degree --- maintenance decision --- sensor system --- least-squares filtering --- least-squares smoothing --- networked systems --- random parameter matrices --- random delays --- packet dropouts --- multi-sensor system --- multi-sensor information fusion --- particle swarm optimization --- sensor data fusion algorithm --- distributed intelligence system --- multi-sensor time series --- deep learning --- machine health monitoring --- time-distributed ConvLSTM model --- spatiotemporal feature learning --- optimal estimate --- unknown inputs --- distributed fusion --- augmented state Kalman filtering (ASKF) --- soft sensor --- coefficient of determination maximization strategy --- expectation maximization (EM) algorithm --- Gaussian mixture model (GMM) --- alumina concentration --- multi-sensor joint calibration --- high-dimensional fusion data (HFD) --- supervoxel --- Gaussian density peak clustering --- sematic segmentation --- multisensor data fusion --- multitarget tracking --- GMPHD --- sonar network --- RFS --- attitude estimation --- Kalman filter --- land vehicle --- magnetic angular rate and gravity (MARG) sensor --- quaternion --- yaw estimation --- network flow theory --- multitarget tracking --- spectral clustering --- A* search algorithm --- RTS smoother --- integer programming --- Surface measurement --- multi-sensor measurement --- surface modelling --- data fusion --- Gaussian process --- multi-sensor network --- observable degree analysis --- information fusion --- nonlinear system --- hybrid adaptive filtering --- weighted fusion estimation --- square-root cubature Kalman filter --- information filter --- surface quality control --- multi-sensor data fusion --- cutting forces --- vibration --- acoustic emission --- signal feature extraction methods --- predictive modeling techniques --- attitude --- orientation --- estimation --- Kalman filter --- quaternion --- manifold --- image registration --- evidential reasoning --- belief functions --- uncertainty --- DoS attack --- industrial cyber-physical system (ICPS) --- security zones --- mimicry security switch strategy --- fixed-point filter --- extended Kalman filter --- nested iterative method --- Steffensen’s iterative method --- convergence condition --- vehicular localization --- target positioning --- high-definition map --- vehicle-to-everything --- intelligent and connected vehicles --- intelligent transport system --- image registration --- non-rigid feature matching --- local structure descriptor --- Gaussian mixture model --- aircraft pilot --- workload --- multi-source data fusion --- fuzzy neural network --- principal component analysis --- parameter learning --- drift compensation --- domain adaption --- feature representations --- electronic nose --- data fusion --- dual gating --- MEMS accelerometer and gyroscope --- cardiac PET --- out-of-sequence --- multi-target tracking --- random finite set --- gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density --- multisensor system --- Gaussian process regression --- Bayesian reasoning method --- Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (DST) --- uncertainty measure --- novel belief entropy --- multi-sensor data fusion --- decision-level sensor fusion --- electronic nose --- subspace alignment --- interference suppression --- transfer --- evidence combination --- time-domain data fusion --- object classification --- uncertainty --- multirotor UAV --- precision landing --- artificial marker --- pose estimation --- sensor fusion --- camera --- LiDAR --- calibration --- plane matching --- ICP --- projection --- data fusion --- data registration --- adaptive distance function --- complex surface measurement --- Gaussian process model --- Dempster–Shafer evidence theory --- conflict measurement --- mutual support degree --- Hellinger distance --- Pignistic vector angle --- multi-sensor data fusion --- multi-environments --- state estimation --- unmanned aerial vehicle

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