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Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

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Book Series: SpringerBriefs in Electrical and Computer Engineering ISSN: 2191-8112 ISBN: 9789811003783 9789811003790 Year: Pages: 114 DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-02-03 18:08:34
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This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean.The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.

The Challenge of Chance: A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities

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Book Series: The Frontiers Collection ISSN: 1612-3018 ISBN: 9783319262987 9783319263007 Year: Pages: 276 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-01-24 17:28:09
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This book presents a multidisciplinary perspective on chance, with contributions from distinguished researchers in the areas of biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, genetics, general history, law, linguistics, logic, mathematical physics, statistics, theology and philosophy. The individual chapters are bound together by a general introduction followed by an opening chapter that surveys 2500 years of linguistic, philosophical, and scientific reflections on chance, coincidence, fortune, randomness, luck and related concepts.A main conclusion that can be drawn is that, even after all this time, we still cannot be sure whether chance is a truly fundamental and irreducible phenomenon, in that certain events are simply uncaused and could have been otherwise, or whether it is always simply a reflection of our ignorance. Other challenges that emerge from this book include a better understanding of the contextuality and perspectival character of chance (including its scale-dependence), and the curious fact that, throughout history (including contemporary science), chance has been used both as an explanation and as a hallmark of the absence of explanation. As such, this book challenges the reader to think about chance in a new way and to come to grips with this endlessly fascinating phenomenon.

Advanced Problems in Mathematics

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Book Series: OBP Series in Mathematics ISBN: 9781783741441 Year: Pages: 186 DOI: 10.11647/OBP.0075 Language: English
Publisher: Open Book Publishers
Subject: Mathematics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-08-22 11:01:03
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" This book is intended to help candidates prepare for entrance examinations in mathematics and scientific subjects, including STEP (Sixth Term Examination Paper). STEP is an examination used by Cambridge colleges as the basis for conditional offers. They are also used by Warwick University, and many other mathematics departments recommend that their applicants practice on the past papers even if they do not take the examination. Advanced Problems in Mathematics is recommended as preparation for any undergraduate mathematics course, even for students who do not plan to take the Sixth Term Examination Paper. The questions analysed in this book are all based on recent STEP questions selected to address the syllabus for Papers I and II, which is the A-level core (i.e. C1 to C4) with a few additions. Each question is followed by a comment and a full solution. The comments direct the reader’s attention to key points and put the question in its true mathematical context. The solutions point students to the methodology required to address advanced mathematical problems critically and independently. This book is a must read for any student wishing to apply to scientific subjects at university level and for anybody interested in advanced mathematics. "

Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889197453 Year: Pages: 207 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-745-3 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Psychology --- Science (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-04-07 11:22:02
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We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.

Innovations in Derivatives Markets: Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

Authors: --- --- ---
Book Series: Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics ISSN: 2194-1009 ISBN: 9783319334455 9783319334462 Year: Volume: 165 Pages: 449 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-33446-2 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Mechanical Engineering --- Therapeutics --- Biotechnology --- Business and Management --- Chemical Technology
Added to DOAB on : 2017-03-08 12:08:06
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This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in:• Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk.• Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling.• Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations.The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities.A panel discussion included in the book (featuring Damiano Brigo, Christian Fries, John Hull, and Daniel Sommer) on the foundations of modeling and pricing in the presence of counterparty credit risk provides intriguing insights on the debate.

Computer and Information Sciences: 31st International Symposium, ISCIS 2016, Kraków, Poland, October 27–28, 2016, Proceedings

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Book Series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ISSN: 1865-0929 ISBN: 9783319472164 9783319472171 Year: Volume: 659 Pages: 278 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-47217-1 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Business and Management --- Transportation --- Manufactures --- Biotechnology --- Therapeutics --- Electrical and Nuclear Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2017-03-08 12:46:55
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 31st International Symposium on Computer and Information Sciences, ISCIS 2016, held in Krakow, Poland, in October 2016.The 29 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 65 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on smart algorithms; data classification and processing; stochastic modelling; performance evaluation; queuing systems; wireless networks and security; image processing and computer vision.

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