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What are some of the possible futures for Barents Sea oil and gas? This chapter draws upon the key trends and issues covered by the book’s thematic chapters and presents three scenarios on the prospects for Norwegian–Russian cooperation in the Barents Sea. Ultimately human interaction will play a large part in how the Barents Sea is developed, and we have therefore given the scenarios metaphorical titles related to interaction between people.

natural resources --- arctic region

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The political relationship between Norway and Russia will influence the development of Barents Sea oil and gas. The state plays a decisive role in both the Norwegian and Russian parts of the sea. It does so as a regulator, through taxation, and through the national oil and gas companies, Gazprom, Rosneft, and Statoil. Thus, if the two states have a good relationship characterized by mutual trust, they can coordinate, search for complementarities, and mitigate issues that arise. Furthermore, due to the rising cost of oil and gas production in the Arctic, many oil and gas fields there may deliver small returns on investments. Scale economies brought about by coordinated development, joint infrastructure, and information sharing can tip projects from being commercially unviable to viable. But this depends on the ability and willingness of the two states to actively work together.

natural resources --- acrtic region