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The articles in this volume are contributed by scholars who are not only experts in areas of Actuarial Science (AS) and Mathematical Finance (MF), but also those who present diverse perspectives from both industry and academia. Topics from multiple areas, such as Stochastic Modeling, Credit Risk, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Pension Valuation, among others, that were maybe thought to be the domain of one type of risk manager, are shown time and again to have deep value to other areas of risk management as well. The articles in this collection, in my opinion, contribute techniques, ideas, and overviews of tools that folks in both AS and MF will find useful and interesting to implement in their work. It is also my hope that this collection will inspire future collaboration between those who seek an interdisciplinary approach to risk management.
Actuarial Science --- Mathematical Finance --- Risk Management
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The recent regulatory changes, together with the increasing awareness of the variety of sources of uncertainty that affect the activities of insurance and pension funds, have generated increasing attention towards insurance risk management theory and practice. Against this background, this Special Issue collects relevant contributions on a variety of issues encompassing longevity risk modelling, solvency requirements, risk management, and risk sharing. This collection of papers provides insights, from both a theoretical and a practical perspective, into the modeling and management of actuarial and financial risks for institutions and households.
longevity risk --- risk management --- solvency --- risk capital --- actuarial mathematics --- pension plans.
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Extreme sea levels can lead to hazardous events, such as coastal flooding, erosion, or salt water intrusion, with-wide ranging environmental, societal, and economic consequences. In combination with climate-driven sea-level rise, and, potentially, additional changes in storminess, dynamic wave contributions, and tidal dynamics, the adverse consequences of extreme oceanographic events are expected to escalate in many regions. Integrated coastal zone impact assessments can guide the decisions on the adaptive responses to these changes in the physical environment and for the socioeconomic development of the local communities.
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Alternative assets such as fine art, wine, or diamonds have become popular investment vehicles in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Correlation with classical financial markets is typically low, such that diversification benefits arise for portfolio allocation and risk management. Cryptocurrencies share many alternative asset features, but are hampered by high volatility, sluggish commercial acceptance, and regulatory uncertainties. This collection of papers addresses alternative assets and cryptocurrencies from economic, financial, statistical, and technical points of view. It gives an overview of their current state and explores their properties and prospects using innovative approaches and methodologies.
Baltic dry index --- Bitcoin volatility --- digital currency --- GARCH-MIDAS --- pro-cyclical volatility --- volume --- Bitcoin --- gold --- GARCH --- portfolio modelling --- risk management --- Bitcoin --- cryptocurrency --- Hashrate --- initial coin offering --- blockchain --- venture capital --- crowdfunding --- geometric distribution --- collatz conjecture --- inflation propensity --- systemic risk --- cryptocurrency --- blockchain --- proof-of-work --- cryptocurrency --- metric learning --- classification framework --- time series --- trend prediction --- limit order book --- cryptocurrency --- stylized fact --- high-frequency finance --- liquidity costs --- transaction costs --- statistical arbitrage --- cryptocurrencies --- machine learning --- bitcoin --- realized volatility --- HAR --- high frequency --- cryptocurrencies --- speculative bubbles --- sentiment --- smooth transition --- diamond stocks --- diamond prices --- investment asset --- capital asset pricing model
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Financial crises are nothing new in the annals of history of the capitalistic path of economic development; indeed, they are part of business cycle. The theoretical basis for this is well entrenched in the concept of ‘Keynesian Cross’. Tales of crises date back centuries, but have taken a new turn as the race for more globalization goes on, which involves liberalizing trade and opening up the financial sector. This has made many nations vulnerable to crises that are likely to be repeated, perhaps frequently. Based on recent experience, warning signs can be seen in the dollar-centric exchange rate, which is the mainstay for the stability of the current global financial system. To a careful observer, there is clearly fatigue in the system.
policy uncertainty --- money demand --- the U.S.A., asymmetry --- nonlinear ARDL --- monetary policy --- cash flow --- investment --- GMM --- China --- Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) --- international monetary system --- RMB internationalization --- Belt and Road Initiative --- risk management --- Grondona system --- currency convertibility --- commodity price stabilisation --- currency crisis --- economic institutions --- currency --- monetary plurality --- Argentina --- cointegration --- exchange rate disconnect puzzle --- macroeconomic fundamentals --- emerging market economies --- NARDL --- trade balance --- exchange rates --- currency pegs --- banking crises --- China --- Special Drawing Right --- international monetary system --- reserve currency --- RMB internationalization --- mortgage crisis --- default swap --- derivative --- Asian crisis --- LIBOR
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The quality of drinking water is paramount for public health. Despite important improvements in the last decades, access to safe drinking water is not universal. The World Health Organization estimates that almost 10% of the population in the world do not have access to improved drinking water sources. Among other diseases, waterborne infections cause diarrhea, which kills nearly one million people every year, mostly children under 5 years of age. On the other hand, chemical pollution is a concern in high-income countries and an increasing problem in low- and middle-income countries. Exposure to chemicals in drinking water may lead to a range of chronic non-communicable diseases (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular disease), adverse reproductive outcomes, and effects on children’s health (e.g., neurodevelopment), among other health effects. Although drinking water quality is regulated and monitored in many countries, increasing knowledge leads to the need for reviewing standards and guidelines on a nearly permanent basis, both for regulated and newly identified contaminants. Drinking water standards are mostly based on animal toxicity data, and more robust epidemiologic studies with accurate exposure assessment are needed. The current risk assessment paradigm dealing mostly with one-by-one chemicals dismisses the potential synergisms or interactions from exposures to mixtures of contaminants, particularly at the low-exposure range. Thus, evidence is needed on exposure and health effects of mixtures of contaminants in drinking water. Finally, water stress and water quality problems are expected to increase in the coming years due to climate change and increasing water demand by population growth, and new evidence is needed to design appropriate adaptation policies.This Special Issue of International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH) focuses on the current state of knowledge on the links between drinking water quality and human health.
Vibrio pathogens --- rural water resources --- public health --- sub-Saharan Africa --- diarrhoeal disease --- HWTS implementation --- water and sanitation --- drinking water guidance --- infant exposure --- chemical risk assessment --- duration extrapolation --- acute gastroenteritis --- risk --- tap water --- time series study --- turbidity --- urban area --- water operation data --- THMs --- cancer --- effect measure modification --- drinking water --- drinking water --- exposure assessment --- sodium --- potassium --- magnesium --- calcium --- spatial variations --- Denmark --- water safety plans --- drinking water quality --- risk management --- impact assessment --- Asia-Pacific region --- diarrhea --- fever --- cough --- Nigeria --- infant health --- drinking water --- inorganic manganese --- health-based guideline --- infants --- pharmaceuticals --- human health --- environment --- drug labels --- screening method --- LTD --- uncertainty factors --- risk assessment --- risk context --- biomonitoring --- dental health --- drinking water --- fluoride --- pharmacokinetic modeling --- waterborne disease outbreak --- simulation study --- health insurance data --- space–time detection --- drinking water --- nitrate --- cancer --- adverse reproductive outcomes --- methemoglobinemia --- thyroid disease --- endogenous nitrosation --- N-nitroso compounds --- E. coli --- monitoring --- drinking water --- water safety plan --- sanitary inspection --- gravity-fed piped water scheme --- risk management --- chlorination by-product --- France --- environmental exposure --- organic matter --- tap water --- trihalomethanes --- private wells --- groundwater --- drinking water --- animal feeding operation --- fecal coliforms --- enterococci --- E. coli --- Maryland --- nitrite --- disinfection by-product --- drinking water distribution systems --- seasonality --- atrazine --- community water system --- low birth weight --- preterm birth --- small for gestational age --- water contamination --- endocrine disruptor --- drinking water --- radioactivity --- annual effective dose --- carcinogenic --- chronic kidney disease --- end-stage renal disease --- water contaminants --- zinc --- ammonia --- chemical oxygen demand --- dissolved oxygen --- arsenic
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A topic of utmost importance in civil engineering is finding optimal solutions throughout the life cycle of buildings and infrastructural objects, including their design, manufacturing, use, and maintenance. Operational research, management science, and optimization methods provide a consistent and applicable groundwork for engineering decision-making. These topics have received the interest of researchers and, after a rigorous peer-review process, eight papers have been published in this Special Issue. The articles in this Printed Edition demonstrate how solutions in civil engineering, which bring economic, social, and environmental benefits, are obtained through a variety of methodologies and tools. Usually, decision-makers need to take into account not just a single criterion, but several different criteria and, therefore, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches have been suggested for application in five of the published papers; the rest of the papers apply other research methods. Most approaches suggested decision models under uncertainty, proposing hybrid MCDM methods in combination with fuzzy or rough set theory, as well as D-numbers. The application areas of the proposed MCDM techniques mainly cover production/manufacturing engineering, logistics and transportation, and construction engineering and management. We hope that a summary of the Special Issue as provided here will encourage a detailed analysis of the papers included in the Printed Edition.
airplane turn time --- boarding/deboarding strategies --- seat preference --- experimental test --- internal transport --- rough Best–Worst Method (BWM) --- rough Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) --- logistics --- railway wagon --- construction --- rough number --- EDAS --- DEMATEL --- MCDM --- supply chain --- image processing --- flexible manufacturing --- tool-flank-wear monitoring --- artificial neural networks --- cost estimation --- shovel machine --- neural network --- multivariate regression --- hybrid model --- performance evaluation --- oil and gas well drilling projects --- Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) --- interval-valued fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment --- Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) --- D number --- analytical network process (ANP) --- multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) --- multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) --- consistent fuzzy preference relation (CFPR) --- construction project risk --- risk management --- civil engineering --- architecture --- conceptual design --- parametric design --- structural analysis --- Grasshopper --- optimisation --- finite element method (FEM) --- ruled surface --- roof shell --- multi criteria decision making --- multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) --- hybrid MCDM --- fuzzy sets --- rough sets --- D numbers --- 3D modelling --- image processing --- experimental testing --- civil engineering --- manufacturing engineering --- transportation --- logistics
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Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks.
aggregate discounted claims --- Markovian arrival process --- partial integro-differential equation --- covariance --- multivariate gamma distribution --- multiplicative background risk model --- aggregate risk --- individual risk model --- collective risk model --- risk measure --- cumulative Parisian ruin --- stochastic orders --- surplus process --- renewal process --- discounted aggregate claims --- copulas --- archimedean copulas --- background risk --- systematic risk --- transfer function --- information processing --- order statistic --- concomitant --- ruin probability --- dual risk model --- constant interest rate --- integral equation --- Laplace transform --- numerical approximation --- maximal tail dependence --- clustering --- financial time series --- weighted cuts --- copula --- national culture --- survival analysis --- hazard model --- rating migrations --- advanced measurement approach --- confidence interval --- Monte Carlo --- operational risk --- value-at-risk --- central limit theorem --- insurance --- max-stable random fields --- rate of spatial diversification --- reinsurance --- risk management --- risk theory --- spatial dependence --- spatial risk measures and corresponding axiomatic approach --- n/a
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At present, computational methods have received considerable attention in economics and finance as an alternative to conventional analytical and numerical paradigms. This Special Issue brings together both theoretical and application-oriented contributions, with a focus on the use of computational techniques in finance and economics. Examined topics span on issues at the center of the literature debate, with an eye not only on technical and theoretical aspects but also very practical cases.
credit risk --- financial regulation --- data science --- Big Data --- deep learning --- credit risk --- financial markets --- non-stationarity --- random matrices --- structural models --- Wishart model --- ordered probit --- stock prices --- auto-regressive --- multi-step ahead forecasts --- convex programming --- financial mathematics --- risk measure --- utility functions --- efficient frontier --- Markowitz portfolio theory --- capital market pricing model --- growth optimal portfolio --- fractional Kelly allocation --- admissible convex risk measures --- current drawdown --- efficient frontier --- portfolio theory --- fractional Kelly allocation, growth optimal portfolio --- financial mathematics --- estimation error --- shrinkage --- target matrix --- risk-based portfolios --- systemic risk --- value at risk --- quantile regression --- CoVaR --- cartography --- loss given default --- weighted logistic regression --- International Financial Reporting Standard 9 --- independence assumption --- systemic risk measures --- conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) --- capital allocation --- copula models --- quantitative risk management
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