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Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

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Book Series: SpringerBriefs in Electrical and Computer Engineering ISSN: 2191-8112 ISBN: 9789811003783 9789811003790 Year: Pages: 114 DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-02-03 18:08:34
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This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean.The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.

The Challenge of Chance: A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities

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Book Series: The Frontiers Collection ISSN: 1612-3018 ISBN: 9783319262987 9783319263007 Year: Pages: 276 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7 Language: English
Publisher: Springer Nature
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-01-24 17:28:09
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This book presents a multidisciplinary perspective on chance, with contributions from distinguished researchers in the areas of biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, genetics, general history, law, linguistics, logic, mathematical physics, statistics, theology and philosophy. The individual chapters are bound together by a general introduction followed by an opening chapter that surveys 2500 years of linguistic, philosophical, and scientific reflections on chance, coincidence, fortune, randomness, luck and related concepts.A main conclusion that can be drawn is that, even after all this time, we still cannot be sure whether chance is a truly fundamental and irreducible phenomenon, in that certain events are simply uncaused and could have been otherwise, or whether it is always simply a reflection of our ignorance. Other challenges that emerge from this book include a better understanding of the contextuality and perspectival character of chance (including its scale-dependence), and the curious fact that, throughout history (including contemporary science), chance has been used both as an explanation and as a hallmark of the absence of explanation. As such, this book challenges the reader to think about chance in a new way and to come to grips with this endlessly fascinating phenomenon.

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